NASA's water level rise map
Is this NASA model really accurate?
• Firstly, the model knows nothing about the tides. Since tidal variation can be 10m or more in some parts of the world, this is a major deficiency.
• Secondly, the NASA data itself is not very accurate. Jonathon Stott has said that “NASA claims their height data is accurate to +/- 16m with 90% certainty”. NASA gathered the data by radar from orbit, so buildings and trees cause a systematic overestimation of the elevation of built-up and forested areas.
• Thirdly, the NASA data does not extend beyond +/-60 degrees latitude. Its accuracy becomes degraded at the extremes of its range, especially in the Southern hemisphere.
• Fourthly, the simulation takes no account of the effects of coastal erosion.
• Fifthly, It doesn`t take any account of coastal defences. It’s obviously possible to build defences that protect habitable land far below sea level. Current defences (in Holland) are able to withstand an extra +1 metre of mean sea level.
• Finally, there are areas of the world far from the oceans that are far below sea level. These areas are shown as flooded on my map, where clearly they are not in danger. The area North of the Caspian Sea is the most striking example.
